* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962024 06/30/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 44 55 61 68 72 75 75 73 68 61 58 56 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 44 55 61 68 72 75 75 73 68 61 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 23 24 29 33 36 40 45 48 49 45 41 37 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 13 15 16 13 5 7 16 23 30 23 18 37 25 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 1 5 1 -2 -1 2 3 12 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 49 36 45 55 60 55 42 351 298 326 316 308 284 265 239 226 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.4 27.7 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 146 147 146 151 146 137 146 152 156 162 160 155 148 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 74 75 76 71 63 52 55 55 56 64 65 71 73 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 13 17 19 17 18 18 18 18 16 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 58 65 71 68 70 73 48 22 18 4 -17 -20 -21 -18 -40 -38 -59 200 MB DIV 111 117 118 103 77 -7 -21 -32 -29 15 41 80 107 122 61 10 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -5 -8 -10 -14 -5 -8 -11 -4 1 7 11 17 15 -10 LAND (KM) 1414 1347 1282 1228 1206 1203 948 781 686 272 70 74 41 237 406 601 736 LAT (DEG N) 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 8.7 9.9 11.3 12.7 14.1 15.5 17.1 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.1 33.5 34.9 36.4 37.9 41.3 44.9 49.0 53.1 57.1 60.6 63.5 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 18 20 21 21 20 18 14 10 11 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 15 20 25 40 35 25 26 81 33 77 89 53 23 29 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 24. 31. 38. 44. 49. 53. 57. 57. 59. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -17. -22. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 4. -1. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 35. 41. 48. 52. 55. 55. 53. 48. 41. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.3 32.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962024 INVEST 06/30/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 16.9% 7.6% 2.1% 0.8% 3.2% 3.5% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 6.5% 2.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962024 INVEST 06/30/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 33 44 55 61 68 72 75 75 73 68 61 58 56 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 30 41 52 58 65 69 72 72 70 65 58 55 53 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 35 46 52 59 63 66 66 64 59 52 49 47 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT