* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/28/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 45 56 68 77 85 87 87 81 80 84 80 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 45 56 68 77 85 87 87 81 80 84 80 80 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 46 55 65 73 79 79 75 72 72 70 68 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 12 12 11 7 8 4 8 12 15 13 13 18 12 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 -4 -6 -2 -3 -1 -2 1 1 5 2 0 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 61 35 36 47 35 352 314 349 284 304 271 281 260 236 242 239 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 28.9 29.4 29.0 28.7 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 151 149 153 151 151 153 155 160 153 161 153 148 156 151 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 9 8 10 9 9 8 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 66 67 68 65 65 67 71 70 66 69 65 62 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 15 16 19 19 20 19 18 12 10 12 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 19 20 34 39 35 32 41 44 55 57 74 71 67 71 32 200 MB DIV 47 48 44 36 40 30 41 36 31 20 60 50 53 17 18 16 28 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -7 -7 -6 -4 -3 -3 3 4 9 20 6 -6 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1247 1099 955 843 759 615 556 191 96 337 305 243 130 279 222 200 -45 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 17 17 17 18 19 19 20 19 17 15 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 39 68 55 33 36 39 21 47 118 62 98 35 36 54 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 27. 34. 39. 44. 47. 51. 52. 54. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. -7. -10. -9. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 26. 38. 47. 55. 57. 57. 51. 50. 54. 50. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.0 41.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.79 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 21.5% 11.9% 8.5% 5.9% 12.8% 15.8% 37.6% Logistic: 5.0% 21.7% 9.9% 3.6% 2.7% 14.4% 26.6% 39.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 20.0% 4.8% 0.5% 0.4% 4.4% 8.7% 27.4% Consensus: 3.1% 21.0% 8.9% 4.2% 3.0% 10.5% 17.0% 35.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 14.0% 82.0% SDCON: 2.0% 16.0% 6.4% 3.1% 2.0% 7.7% 15.5% 58.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/28/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 45 56 68 77 85 87 87 81 80 84 80 80 62 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 53 65 74 82 84 84 78 77 81 77 77 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 46 58 67 75 77 77 71 70 74 70 70 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 36 48 57 65 67 67 61 60 64 60 60 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT