* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/28/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 67 76 83 85 85 84 81 81 79 82 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 67 76 83 85 85 84 81 81 79 82 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 49 59 68 77 84 88 86 80 78 76 74 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 8 7 10 13 7 4 4 16 8 18 10 14 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -2 0 -5 -3 -1 1 3 1 6 3 2 2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 59 60 60 46 38 57 51 38 29 321 303 291 282 274 270 246 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.9 29.4 29.0 28.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 143 148 150 149 153 153 153 153 158 153 161 153 150 160 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 9 9 9 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 69 67 67 65 65 66 68 70 71 67 71 69 68 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 17 19 19 19 18 17 14 11 9 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 21 19 17 40 42 40 37 48 53 59 62 74 62 88 54 200 MB DIV 58 49 55 48 36 36 44 53 -2 19 29 53 18 43 5 11 1 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -6 -6 -2 -1 -2 0 4 3 8 15 0 -6 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1309 1278 1161 1023 901 715 606 443 94 187 372 298 211 131 293 241 108 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 19 18 19 20 18 15 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 29 28 54 44 30 42 29 26 48 81 56 121 34 42 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 27. 34. 39. 44. 47. 51. 52. 55. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 37. 46. 53. 55. 55. 54. 51. 51. 49. 52. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.9 39.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.80 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 29.9% 15.3% 9.0% 6.1% 13.7% 19.2% 39.9% Logistic: 8.1% 36.3% 18.9% 7.1% 5.8% 23.5% 26.6% 50.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 45.7% 6.7% 0.9% 0.4% 8.1% 17.8% 40.0% Consensus: 4.9% 37.3% 13.6% 5.7% 4.1% 15.1% 21.2% 43.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 19.0% SDCON: 2.9% 22.6% 8.8% 3.8% 2.5% 8.5% 12.6% 31.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/28/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 55 67 76 83 85 85 84 81 81 79 82 81 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 51 63 72 79 81 81 80 77 77 75 78 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 44 56 65 72 74 74 73 70 70 68 71 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 46 55 62 64 64 63 60 60 58 61 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT