* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/28/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 57 70 82 90 93 97 97 91 89 88 91 89 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 57 70 82 90 84 97 97 91 89 88 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 48 59 69 80 87 92 95 90 85 82 79 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 6 8 7 10 10 4 6 10 9 11 13 18 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -7 -5 0 0 0 4 7 2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 115 73 92 107 56 75 78 65 117 17 312 309 252 278 270 238 228 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.2 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 147 146 142 142 142 146 147 148 158 162 155 158 154 151 155 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 66 68 66 65 65 63 61 63 65 67 69 69 67 67 67 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 16 18 20 20 19 19 18 13 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 28 38 33 35 46 50 43 48 50 60 67 75 83 97 99 200 MB DIV 68 30 52 62 54 48 33 42 56 11 24 67 45 38 14 18 22 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -7 -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 5 6 15 7 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1390 1383 1318 1179 1053 844 699 583 206 -4 388 336 208 155 232 206 182 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 19 19 18 17 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 20 22 47 27 32 56 22 56 135 56 57 48 32 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 33. 38. 43. 46. 50. 52. 54. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 8. 6. 6. 3. -5. -9. -11. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 40. 52. 60. 64. 67. 67. 61. 59. 58. 61. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.5 38.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.83 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 19.1% 11.6% 7.8% 5.1% 12.5% 19.2% 46.6% Logistic: 5.8% 14.4% 6.8% 1.3% 0.5% 4.8% 14.1% 18.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 17.7% 5.8% 0.6% 0.4% 6.1% 18.4% 14.8% Consensus: 4.2% 17.1% 8.0% 3.2% 2.0% 7.8% 17.2% 26.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/28/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 47 57 70 82 90 84 97 97 91 89 88 90 89 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 52 65 77 85 79 92 92 86 84 83 85 84 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 45 58 70 78 72 85 85 79 77 76 78 77 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 48 60 68 62 75 75 69 67 66 68 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT