* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/28/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 62 75 83 90 94 96 97 93 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 62 75 83 90 94 96 97 93 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 41 50 59 69 78 83 83 80 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 13 11 8 10 9 2 4 7 16 10 24 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 2 -1 -1 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 144 107 78 91 94 63 65 40 53 349 290 296 273 262 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 151 149 148 141 143 147 148 148 154 157 160 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 69 68 64 64 62 63 65 64 63 64 61 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 14 14 14 19 20 20 20 20 19 18 15 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 25 28 30 31 47 47 42 29 30 37 38 32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 51 26 39 58 51 51 54 32 5 23 32 53 29 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 0 0 0 9 18 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1434 1377 1348 1254 1106 863 702 634 478 111 90 293 186 52 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.2 11.9 12.7 14.0 15.2 16.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.6 38.1 39.6 41.2 42.8 46.0 49.1 52.1 55.2 58.5 61.9 65.8 69.8 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 16 16 17 18 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 25 27 29 28 64 39 26 39 45 27 56 64 59 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 41. 46. 50. 54. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 8. 11. 10. 11. 10. 7. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 37. 50. 58. 65. 69. 71. 72. 68. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 36.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 16.2% 10.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 25.0% 13.9% 5.3% 3.1% 12.4% 15.9% 28.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 8.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 5.7% 9.2% Consensus: 3.4% 16.5% 8.7% 4.0% 1.1% 4.6% 11.7% 12.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 48.0% SDCON: 2.2% 10.2% 5.3% 2.5% .5% 2.8% 6.8% 30.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 06/28/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/28/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 47 62 75 83 90 94 96 97 93 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 44 59 72 80 87 91 93 94 90 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 38 53 66 74 81 85 87 88 84 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 43 56 64 71 75 77 78 74 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT