* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/27/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 37 41 51 64 73 84 91 93 98 98 96 91 87 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 37 41 51 64 73 84 91 93 98 98 96 80 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 51 60 70 79 84 86 83 71 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 14 13 11 8 14 12 2 3 10 13 17 20 27 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -5 -3 -4 -3 -6 -4 0 0 0 4 3 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 123 133 95 76 84 76 67 50 46 147 326 274 299 253 257 260 263 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.0 30.2 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 150 149 152 146 146 148 145 147 150 152 159 155 174 168 167 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 70 67 66 64 63 64 63 63 65 61 62 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 14 14 15 18 18 20 22 20 21 19 17 14 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 8 19 22 28 29 29 37 50 51 34 30 25 34 27 19 16 24 200 MB DIV 75 95 60 21 45 47 40 44 34 41 35 2 36 11 38 25 11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 -2 0 1 0 1 5 21 15 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1485 1417 1363 1333 1244 949 752 617 583 400 35 152 184 60 14 61 253 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.8 13.1 14.5 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.4 36.8 38.3 39.7 41.2 44.4 47.5 50.4 53.2 56.0 59.1 62.6 66.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 15 14 14 15 18 20 20 20 18 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 25 29 33 41 63 37 29 45 38 36 81 35 97 112 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 29. 36. 42. 47. 51. 55. 56. 60. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 8. 11. 13. 10. 11. 7. 3. -1. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 12. 16. 26. 39. 48. 59. 66. 68. 73. 73. 71. 66. 62. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 35.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/27/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.86 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 17.3% 11.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 16.8% 9.4% 3.1% 1.2% 6.1% 9.6% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 11.3% 5.1% Consensus: 2.3% 12.6% 7.2% 3.5% 0.4% 2.4% 11.5% 6.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 19.0% SDCON: 1.6% 9.3% 4.6% 1.7% .2% 1.7% 7.2% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952024 INVEST 06/27/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/27/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 37 41 51 64 73 84 91 93 98 98 96 80 76 77 18HR AGO 25 24 28 34 38 48 61 70 81 88 90 95 95 93 77 73 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 27 31 41 54 63 74 81 83 88 88 86 70 66 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 42 51 62 69 71 76 76 74 58 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT