* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/27/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 53 67 79 89 99 104 103 104 97 97 97 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 53 67 79 89 99 104 103 104 97 97 97 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 57 68 79 86 89 89 83 78 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 8 15 6 3 9 5 3 6 5 13 14 25 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 6 2 -4 2 2 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 4 4 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 42 103 146 96 81 129 90 97 51 162 348 316 291 266 261 257 273 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 141 140 145 145 141 134 148 150 152 151 157 162 169 164 166 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 70 68 69 63 62 60 60 60 60 62 62 58 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 11 13 14 17 18 19 21 20 17 17 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 19 26 29 33 33 46 39 38 29 38 35 30 19 17 9 200 MB DIV 50 43 61 53 -4 50 27 60 37 25 26 36 17 31 7 -11 -4 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 1 3 15 16 12 -7 LAND (KM) 1585 1528 1461 1413 1382 1115 868 693 621 396 80 136 336 199 49 66 194 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.4 13.5 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.1 36.4 37.9 39.5 42.9 46.4 49.7 52.9 56.0 59.2 62.5 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 16 15 16 18 20 19 18 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 17 20 25 25 60 25 31 53 38 29 61 74 64 121 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 28. 35. 41. 46. 50. 54. 56. 59. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 10. 6. 4. -2. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 28. 42. 54. 64. 74. 79. 78. 79. 72. 72. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 33.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/27/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.84 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.75 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.7% 10.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 19.2% 12.0% 3.2% 1.3% 8.1% 7.1% 8.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 3.1% 1.5% Consensus: 2.9% 12.3% 7.8% 3.3% 0.4% 3.1% 7.6% 3.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.9% 7.1% 4.4% 2.1% .2% 2.0% 4.3% 3.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/27/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 42 53 67 79 89 99 104 103 104 97 97 97 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 40 51 65 77 87 97 102 101 102 95 95 95 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 46 60 72 82 92 97 96 97 90 90 90 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 37 51 63 73 83 88 87 88 81 81 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT