* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/27/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 44 53 64 75 85 95 101 102 102 98 97 101 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 44 53 64 75 85 95 101 102 102 98 97 101 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 51 60 72 84 91 94 92 88 83 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 6 10 9 1 4 4 0 2 7 14 15 19 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 2 1 1 3 2 0 0 -3 -2 0 5 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 2 44 71 110 105 101 161 60 109 5 211 306 281 281 256 259 266 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.4 27.7 28.2 28.8 29.0 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 140 141 148 145 135 142 151 154 151 159 164 160 163 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 8 10 9 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 71 70 68 65 63 62 62 62 62 63 65 64 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 8 10 12 13 15 16 17 19 19 19 18 15 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR -4 5 10 20 27 26 31 38 46 41 34 41 29 39 48 52 51 200 MB DIV 43 24 34 58 37 20 58 59 48 24 34 37 22 49 35 47 8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 0 1 3 10 16 12 8 LAND (KM) 1663 1599 1529 1470 1409 1288 974 762 635 516 145 69 384 288 149 54 221 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.7 12.3 13.1 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.5 34.8 36.1 37.6 40.9 44.5 48.1 51.6 54.9 58.4 61.9 65.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 17 18 18 17 17 18 18 20 20 19 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 23 15 13 16 20 28 37 40 27 42 52 24 62 114 62 78 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 28. 36. 42. 47. 51. 55. 57. 60. 61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 6. 1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 39. 50. 60. 70. 76. 77. 77. 73. 72. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 32.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/27/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 15.5% 10.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 12.5% 7.1% 1.4% 0.4% 2.6% 4.1% 8.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.5% Consensus: 2.4% 10.4% 6.1% 2.8% 0.2% 1.3% 6.1% 3.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.7% 6.2% 3.5% 1.9% .1% .6% 3.0% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/27/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 44 53 64 75 85 95 101 102 102 98 97 101 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 41 50 61 72 82 92 98 99 99 95 94 98 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 36 45 56 67 77 87 93 94 94 90 89 93 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 36 47 58 68 78 84 85 85 81 80 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT