* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/27/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 55 66 79 89 97 103 108 108 106 103 106 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 55 66 79 89 97 103 108 108 106 103 106 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 39 46 53 64 75 86 94 99 100 96 91 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 4 7 8 11 12 9 5 7 6 2 3 3 14 15 22 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 -1 0 -1 -6 0 0 -3 -1 -1 0 4 6 5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 114 47 68 95 109 82 93 88 83 88 137 289 286 285 254 258 217 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.6 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 138 141 148 151 143 140 147 154 151 153 158 163 159 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 72 74 71 70 72 68 67 63 63 61 60 60 60 61 62 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 11 13 15 18 20 20 19 20 19 17 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -1 6 10 24 34 36 30 53 49 38 33 40 46 50 54 62 200 MB DIV 53 40 22 35 68 -9 69 51 51 34 55 53 36 27 51 -3 11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 4 12 21 9 LAND (KM) 1605 1636 1570 1509 1431 1333 1070 808 627 556 434 140 141 373 301 210 103 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.6 9.2 9.2 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.3 11.8 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.5 32.8 34.1 35.3 36.7 39.7 43.0 46.4 49.7 52.9 55.9 59.3 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 14 16 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 19 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 18 13 14 17 32 39 65 40 34 53 30 23 53 113 71 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 22. 29. 36. 42. 47. 51. 56. 58. 61. 63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. 8. 5. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 30. 41. 54. 64. 72. 78. 83. 83. 81. 78. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 31.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/27/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.85 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 17.4% 11.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 28.8% 19.8% 6.5% 2.5% 10.1% 5.9% 10.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 3.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% Consensus: 3.3% 16.5% 11.0% 4.8% 0.8% 3.7% 6.8% 4.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/27/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 36 44 55 66 79 89 97 103 108 108 106 103 106 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 41 52 63 76 86 94 100 105 105 103 100 103 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 47 58 71 81 89 95 100 100 98 95 98 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 38 49 62 72 80 86 91 91 89 86 89 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT