* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952024 06/26/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 29 38 47 58 71 81 90 98 104 106 106 106 107 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 29 38 47 58 71 81 90 98 104 106 106 106 107 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 37 45 55 64 74 83 91 93 90 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 9 12 10 3 2 3 7 6 4 3 15 17 25 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 -1 -4 -4 -2 3 4 2 0 0 -2 3 3 5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 31 89 72 79 104 100 38 291 79 95 67 140 327 279 286 274 292 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 133 134 135 137 144 152 145 142 147 153 153 153 159 164 160 160 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 8 8 10 9 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 73 73 71 70 71 66 66 66 63 60 61 60 63 64 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 11 11 13 16 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -11 0 2 6 26 20 27 41 45 38 26 41 34 48 49 50 200 MB DIV 62 55 32 15 32 -6 -32 5 42 58 34 59 39 17 28 1 26 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 2 7 9 -3 LAND (KM) 1503 1653 1629 1563 1498 1374 1219 905 690 570 512 174 130 329 301 254 197 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.1 9.9 9.4 9.1 9.3 9.8 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.5 32.0 33.3 34.5 35.6 38.3 41.4 44.9 48.4 51.9 55.2 58.7 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 12 15 16 18 17 17 17 17 18 21 21 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 36 28 18 14 14 24 39 49 55 33 47 38 21 48 99 76 122 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 13. 23. 30. 38. 44. 50. 55. 59. 62. 65. 67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 38. 51. 61. 70. 78. 84. 86. 86. 86. 87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 30.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952024 INVEST 06/26/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.76 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 26.1% 18.0% 5.8% 2.4% 11.4% 8.6% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.8% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 2.6% 0.4% Consensus: 2.6% 10.3% 6.7% 2.0% 0.8% 4.4% 3.7% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952024 INVEST 06/26/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 27 29 38 47 58 71 81 90 98 104 106 106 106 107 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 27 36 45 56 69 79 88 96 102 104 104 104 105 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 30 39 50 63 73 82 90 96 98 98 98 99 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT