* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/19/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 42 47 51 51 49 48 48 50 50 51 59 70 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 42 42 45 45 43 41 42 44 44 45 53 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 37 37 34 32 29 27 26 26 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 8 11 20 26 31 30 34 32 31 25 26 18 18 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 0 4 6 3 7 3 5 4 4 8 -1 SHEAR DIR 24 11 7 348 331 329 321 314 307 299 278 262 247 240 263 250 308 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.0 27.3 25.4 18.6 15.6 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 171 171 170 169 168 168 170 172 173 156 134 117 84 78 75 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -54.0 -55.1 -56.9 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 7 5 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 48 48 50 48 47 50 55 58 60 57 56 65 71 52 56 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -30 -17 -5 -2 25 37 69 78 81 68 79 63 55 64 13 -76 200 MB DIV -85 -95 -52 -41 -27 0 -7 20 20 57 35 53 98 116 106 91 -3 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 3 0 -2 1 8 6 10 16 28 68 64 85 16 162 LAND (KM) 168 153 145 144 55 25 0 11 27 118 365 730 1208 1192 510 859 1026 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.0 21.2 21.2 21.1 20.7 20.3 20.4 20.7 21.6 23.0 25.5 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.3 69.6 70.7 71.6 72.5 73.6 74.3 74.3 73.4 71.9 69.7 66.7 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 9 8 7 5 2 3 6 10 15 23 31 39 50 52 51 HEAT CONTENT 63 61 61 60 60 64 67 67 64 59 54 28 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 29. 32. 34. 34. 38. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -3. -9. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 17. 21. 21. 19. 18. 18. 20. 20. 21. 29. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 68.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/19/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -60.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 8.5% 6.7% 2.3% 1.0% 4.1% 4.7% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .4% 2.2% 1.7% .4% .1% .7% .8% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/19/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/19/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 42 42 45 45 43 41 42 44 44 45 53 64 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 41 41 44 44 42 40 41 43 43 44 52 63 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 37 37 40 40 38 36 37 39 39 40 48 59 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 29 32 32 30 28 29 31 31 32 40 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT