* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/19/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 36 43 51 56 61 62 65 71 74 76 74 73 70 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 36 43 46 51 56 57 61 66 69 71 69 68 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 39 40 43 46 49 50 52 54 55 55 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 10 5 14 14 16 12 17 16 14 21 22 24 32 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 1 3 4 -1 0 -4 -7 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 94 36 22 24 9 337 339 331 304 302 308 274 248 258 238 238 233 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 172 171 170 170 169 166 166 167 166 166 167 169 170 170 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 51 52 48 48 51 53 53 52 48 49 48 48 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -38 -27 -11 -1 16 36 55 77 80 72 42 39 21 14 -2 -17 200 MB DIV -73 -94 -96 -55 -35 -2 -11 -16 -20 -7 0 -2 -18 -2 -3 23 49 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 4 1 -8 -5 1 0 1 0 1 0 3 4 9 7 LAND (KM) 176 142 114 109 105 46 12 76 91 81 72 61 61 57 75 54 86 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.8 20.5 19.8 19.3 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.7 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.1 68.6 69.9 71.1 72.1 73.8 75.1 76.1 76.5 76.5 76.3 76.3 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 1 1 2 0 1 2 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 67 62 61 61 62 66 73 74 75 75 75 75 75 76 78 80 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 22. 25. 29. 33. 37. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 32. 35. 41. 44. 46. 44. 43. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.1 67.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/19/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -70.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.95 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.9% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3.4% 5.7% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 1.9% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/19/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/19/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 36 43 46 51 56 57 61 66 69 71 69 68 66 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 42 45 50 55 56 60 65 68 70 68 67 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 37 40 45 50 51 55 60 63 65 63 62 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 32 37 42 43 47 52 55 57 55 54 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT