* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/18/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 46 54 61 65 68 70 76 81 83 81 82 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 46 54 61 65 68 70 76 81 68 59 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 45 50 55 60 63 65 67 58 51 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 5 8 7 10 11 15 9 20 18 11 18 23 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -1 3 0 -4 4 -1 -3 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 140 118 109 22 10 12 347 325 343 303 311 328 293 235 238 240 245 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 173 172 172 171 170 170 169 167 167 167 167 167 168 169 170 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 51 52 53 49 47 50 53 53 52 49 48 47 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -26 -32 -37 -30 1 18 42 63 69 66 60 48 39 37 37 27 200 MB DIV -29 -30 -70 -87 -96 -48 -11 -19 -9 -10 -17 -4 6 -8 -6 -41 11 700-850 TADV 4 4 -1 2 4 -2 -7 -5 1 0 2 1 2 0 1 3 7 LAND (KM) 76 173 222 155 134 110 49 35 98 62 36 14 3 -8 -3 20 102 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.4 19.6 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.1 65.9 67.4 68.8 70.0 72.0 73.7 75.0 76.1 76.7 76.9 76.9 76.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 12 11 9 8 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 3 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 63 68 67 62 62 62 67 74 75 77 78 79 79 80 81 83 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 34. 38. 39. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 46. 51. 53. 51. 52. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.4 64.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/18/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -62.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.98 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 14.2% 13.6% 10.1% 4.9% 18.9% 18.8% 21.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 1.8% 5.5% 4.8% 3.4% 1.6% 6.6% 6.3% 7.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/18/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/18/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 38 46 54 61 65 68 70 76 81 68 59 63 64 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 43 51 58 62 65 67 73 78 65 56 60 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 47 54 58 61 63 69 74 61 52 56 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 39 46 50 53 55 61 66 53 44 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT