* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/18/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 36 43 50 57 62 65 67 71 74 75 72 72 73 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 36 43 50 57 62 65 67 71 74 75 63 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 47 52 56 60 62 62 62 54 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 9 11 10 10 13 17 24 24 20 29 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 0 0 -2 -2 -2 2 4 5 -1 -1 6 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 183 128 110 124 351 17 350 350 316 324 300 320 307 275 246 253 257 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.8 30.6 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 173 173 172 171 170 170 169 166 166 167 168 169 169 169 168 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 45 50 50 52 54 56 53 50 50 55 57 57 53 52 47 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -21 -27 -34 -38 -19 -3 36 54 72 65 68 55 38 21 5 -25 200 MB DIV -27 -31 -28 -74 -92 -59 -55 -20 -39 -8 -3 -5 6 -1 -47 -31 -37 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 1 4 2 -1 -3 0 2 1 4 2 2 0 4 4 LAND (KM) 109 84 180 221 186 139 88 49 52 46 57 57 72 52 -6 29 66 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.5 20.8 21.1 21.0 20.3 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.9 65.5 66.9 68.3 70.5 72.2 73.4 74.5 75.2 75.2 75.0 74.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 14 12 9 7 7 5 1 1 1 2 4 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 60 63 66 69 64 62 61 68 73 74 74 74 75 77 81 69 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 30. 34. 37. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 27. 32. 35. 37. 41. 44. 45. 42. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.8 62.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/18/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -50.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.99 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 14.9% 12.4% 7.7% 3.8% 12.1% 15.5% 24.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 2.5% 5.7% 4.4% 2.6% 1.3% 4.3% 5.2% 8.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/18/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/18/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 33 36 43 50 57 62 65 67 71 74 75 63 62 63 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 35 42 49 56 61 64 66 70 73 74 62 61 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 30 37 44 51 56 59 61 65 68 69 57 56 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 37 44 49 52 54 58 61 62 50 49 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT