* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/18/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 45 54 59 64 66 68 71 73 73 71 70 70 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 45 54 59 64 66 68 71 73 73 71 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 45 50 55 61 64 66 66 64 62 60 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 7 5 10 11 11 8 15 18 26 26 26 24 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -6 -6 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 2 0 -2 3 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 158 158 129 126 139 7 10 5 310 330 310 317 315 293 263 268 264 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 174 174 174 173 173 172 171 170 170 168 166 167 167 167 167 165 166 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 43 48 50 51 54 56 56 52 51 53 57 57 56 51 49 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -11 -18 -24 -34 -34 -2 14 49 52 67 61 64 34 36 20 1 200 MB DIV 2 -21 -33 -34 -78 -107 -47 -52 -18 -16 -6 0 -4 -1 -31 -19 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 1 3 0 -4 -4 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 205 109 98 137 191 151 109 71 32 51 35 49 74 69 56 38 59 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.8 20.9 20.6 20.0 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.9 61.8 63.5 65.1 66.6 69.2 71.1 72.6 73.6 74.6 75.0 74.9 74.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 15 14 10 8 6 6 3 0 1 2 1 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 59 60 62 64 69 62 62 64 72 73 74 74 75 77 82 83 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 30. 34. 37. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 24. 29. 34. 36. 38. 41. 43. 43. 41. 40. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 59.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/18/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 22.6% 21.9% 12.9% 4.9% 13.8% 14.0% 20.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.6% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 3.8% 8.4% 8.5% 4.4% 1.7% 4.9% 4.7% 6.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/18/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/18/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 38 45 54 59 64 66 68 71 73 73 71 70 70 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 36 43 52 57 62 64 66 69 71 71 69 68 68 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 39 48 53 58 60 62 65 67 67 65 64 64 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 39 44 49 51 53 56 58 58 56 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT