* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/17/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 44 52 59 64 69 75 83 88 93 92 94 95 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 44 52 51 62 67 69 77 82 87 86 88 89 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 44 54 60 56 69 75 79 82 83 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 6 7 5 9 16 14 6 9 11 16 13 11 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -6 -5 -3 -1 -6 -6 -1 1 1 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 185 162 180 153 125 38 29 3 16 340 344 318 318 305 249 222 208 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.3 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 175 175 174 174 173 172 172 171 171 171 169 169 169 169 165 166 166 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 49 51 55 55 53 52 51 51 51 50 50 52 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -1 -8 -11 -11 -26 -5 7 37 52 61 59 59 48 31 26 38 200 MB DIV 3 -7 -25 -42 -32 -102 -66 -59 -30 -45 -15 -10 -4 -23 11 -4 17 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 3 4 3 1 -1 -4 1 3 1 2 1 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 349 135 71 18 89 88 21 0 68 48 4 68 144 241 303 172 62 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.1 19.9 19.3 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 60.5 62.3 64.1 65.7 68.6 71.1 73.2 75.0 76.6 78.0 79.0 79.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 18 17 15 13 11 9 9 8 5 4 4 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 59 60 60 64 67 62 65 75 75 77 87 90 90 84 75 67 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 28. 32. 37. 41. 42. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 22. 29. 34. 39. 45. 53. 58. 63. 62. 64. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 58.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.04 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.47 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 17.2% 11.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 9.1% 8.0% 3.1% 0.7% 5.4% 6.4% 9.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.2% 9.4% 6.9% 3.7% 0.3% 2.1% 2.2% 3.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/17/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 36 44 52 51 62 67 69 77 82 87 86 88 89 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 43 51 50 61 66 68 76 81 86 85 87 88 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 47 46 57 62 64 72 77 82 81 83 84 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 39 38 49 54 56 64 69 74 73 75 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT