* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/17/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 43 51 59 63 66 70 74 76 77 74 74 73 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 43 51 59 63 57 67 70 72 74 71 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 34 38 43 48 54 51 60 63 64 64 62 60 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 4 3 3 6 7 14 13 18 19 23 22 29 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 -3 -2 0 -1 -6 -4 0 3 1 2 1 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 206 185 159 186 145 116 5 326 344 334 321 315 311 296 290 269 272 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 175 174 174 174 174 173 172 171 170 170 168 167 166 166 167 167 167 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 45 48 54 55 56 53 50 50 53 55 55 51 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 0 -10 -22 -25 -28 0 18 42 47 64 49 58 37 26 4 200 MB DIV 10 21 9 -20 -36 -64 -83 -32 -39 -8 -17 -22 -8 -4 1 -35 -29 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 -1 1 2 1 0 -4 -3 1 1 2 2 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 586 407 225 119 103 194 158 104 74 -4 77 68 77 64 61 59 37 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.2 20.7 20.8 20.4 19.8 19.4 19.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.0 57.9 59.7 61.4 63.1 66.2 68.7 70.6 72.1 73.3 74.2 74.7 74.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 14 10 8 7 6 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 56 57 59 59 63 69 63 63 66 77 77 75 76 77 77 80 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 31. 35. 38. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 29. 33. 36. 40. 44. 46. 47. 44. 44. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 56.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.1 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.43 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 20.8% 11.8% 8.1% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 8.2% 6.7% 2.2% 0.5% 5.6% 6.5% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 10.2% 7.2% 3.5% 0.2% 7.0% 2.2% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/17/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 36 43 51 59 63 57 67 70 72 74 71 71 70 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 42 50 58 62 56 66 69 71 73 70 70 69 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 38 46 54 58 52 62 65 67 69 66 66 65 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 38 46 50 44 54 57 59 61 58 58 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT