* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/17/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 41 50 58 63 66 70 73 74 75 71 69 67 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 41 50 58 63 56 42 50 51 52 40 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 46 51 49 38 44 45 45 36 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 5 5 5 6 1 4 14 19 18 26 24 26 30 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -2 0 -5 0 0 -3 -5 0 1 5 3 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 188 207 193 150 153 127 195 338 325 334 325 317 300 294 290 272 264 SST (C) 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.7 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.1 30.8 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 174 174 174 174 173 172 171 170 170 169 167 167 168 168 169 167 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 41 42 43 44 46 50 56 57 54 54 52 56 58 57 53 53 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 4 -2 -10 -22 -35 -13 3 32 43 53 60 66 47 24 -12 200 MB DIV 7 2 12 3 -13 -1 -66 -36 -55 -6 -3 0 -7 5 -14 -30 -53 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 -1 2 4 3 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 745 630 498 326 162 99 191 145 71 -6 -4 59 54 17 -24 -44 -38 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.5 20.2 20.6 20.4 19.8 19.2 19.1 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.6 55.3 57.0 58.7 60.5 63.8 66.7 68.8 70.4 71.6 72.7 73.3 73.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 15 12 8 7 6 5 1 1 2 3 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 54 56 58 59 63 69 63 63 70 91 90 90 93 90 78 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 21. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 3. -0. -4. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 33. 36. 40. 43. 44. 45. 41. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 53.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.2 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.41 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 17.1% 10.9% 7.2% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 11.3% 9.2% 2.9% 0.7% 6.5% 8.1% 17.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.4% 1.2% Consensus: 2.2% 9.7% 7.6% 3.4% 0.2% 6.9% 2.9% 6.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/17/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 41 50 58 63 56 42 50 51 52 40 32 29 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 40 49 57 62 55 41 49 50 51 39 31 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 36 45 53 58 51 37 45 46 47 35 27 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 38 46 51 44 30 38 39 40 28 20 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT