* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/17/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 52 60 66 68 74 78 83 87 86 89 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 52 60 66 44 49 50 55 59 58 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 41 45 52 58 41 45 47 51 54 56 58 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 5 5 5 5 5 8 13 18 20 14 20 20 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -6 -5 -2 -4 -2 -4 -5 -4 3 1 0 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 159 180 190 167 149 148 148 317 346 344 338 332 333 323 321 309 264 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.9 31.0 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 174 174 174 174 173 172 171 171 170 169 168 168 168 167 168 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 44 45 48 53 56 59 56 53 52 55 53 55 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 27 16 8 5 -9 -12 -19 10 29 57 64 74 62 71 53 49 200 MB DIV 9 5 3 10 4 -10 -26 -31 -36 -46 5 -7 -41 -30 -29 -14 -29 700-850 TADV 7 2 0 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 -4 -5 1 0 1 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 885 748 631 517 333 99 103 107 5 -47 21 43 100 90 122 138 149 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.3 19.7 19.8 19.3 18.7 18.1 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.9 53.5 55.2 56.8 58.6 62.0 65.2 68.1 70.4 72.1 73.6 74.7 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 17 14 12 9 8 7 5 3 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 54 56 59 60 65 63 65 83 86 76 78 83 84 82 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 25. 29. 33. 38. 42. 43. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 22. 30. 36. 38. 44. 48. 53. 57. 56. 59. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 51.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.99 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.51 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 23.5% 12.1% 8.2% 0.0% 13.3% 20.1% 45.9% Logistic: 5.1% 19.6% 16.5% 6.2% 1.5% 13.0% 14.3% 35.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.4% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1% 3.8% 2.4% 19.6% Consensus: 3.4% 16.1% 11.1% 4.9% 0.6% 10.1% 12.3% 33.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 8.5% 6.5% 3.9% .8% 5.0% 6.1% 16.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/17/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/17/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 36 38 44 52 60 66 44 49 50 55 59 58 61 64 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 35 41 49 57 63 41 46 47 52 56 55 58 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 45 53 59 37 42 43 48 52 51 54 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 36 44 50 28 33 34 39 43 42 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT