* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/16/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 52 60 67 71 76 82 84 86 84 87 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 43 52 60 67 48 41 37 43 45 44 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 41 45 51 59 45 34 36 43 46 47 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 9 5 5 4 2 6 7 15 15 22 25 21 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -3 -4 -1 -3 -3 -3 -5 -7 -2 1 1 3 6 3 SHEAR DIR 144 158 179 193 193 148 144 320 17 333 344 336 331 318 316 265 267 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.5 31.0 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 170 173 174 174 173 173 172 171 170 169 167 167 165 166 167 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 41 43 43 42 43 46 49 55 59 58 58 54 55 56 55 51 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 29 17 9 2 -12 -13 -9 15 42 58 67 72 58 46 41 200 MB DIV -2 9 13 5 10 0 -2 -32 -26 -50 -27 -25 -23 -18 -8 -33 -18 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 1 1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 1 4 4 5 LAND (KM) 1051 887 741 617 528 176 53 81 20 -60 14 -17 44 75 90 90 96 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.5 19.3 18.8 18.3 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.8 53.4 55.0 56.6 60.1 63.4 66.5 69.1 71.1 72.7 73.9 74.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 14 10 9 7 5 2 1 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 41 48 52 54 57 61 63 68 62 72 92 80 76 76 77 77 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 38. 42. 43. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 22. 30. 37. 42. 46. 52. 54. 56. 54. 57. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 50.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.88 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.98 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.39 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 17.7% 11.4% 7.6% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 8.2% 6.8% 1.9% 0.3% 4.2% 7.7% 14.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.6% 4.9% 0.1% 0.1% 5.6% 1.9% 1.1% Consensus: 2.6% 8.8% 7.7% 3.2% 0.1% 7.6% 3.2% 5.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 4.9% 4.8% 3.1% .5% 3.8% 1.6% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/16/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 43 52 60 67 48 41 37 43 45 44 46 47 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 40 49 57 64 45 38 34 40 42 41 43 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 45 53 60 41 34 30 36 38 37 39 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 37 45 52 33 26 22 28 30 29 31 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT