* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/16/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 37 47 57 64 70 75 82 87 92 92 97 102 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 37 47 57 64 53 37 42 47 52 52 57 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 39 45 41 32 37 43 48 54 59 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 10 7 4 6 3 2 2 10 12 13 14 14 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -7 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -7 -6 0 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 155 131 140 176 194 118 137 185 341 350 323 341 335 344 345 355 7 SST (C) 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.5 31.0 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 168 168 169 172 174 174 173 172 171 171 170 169 169 169 170 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 39 42 44 44 44 46 48 52 57 59 59 59 58 55 52 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 43 43 30 20 11 0 -4 -7 14 37 62 67 75 64 69 61 200 MB DIV 1 1 5 18 16 -2 5 -15 -22 -29 -37 -11 -1 -36 -18 -3 -9 700-850 TADV 2 4 6 4 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 1190 1017 877 746 626 369 50 35 70 -57 -17 17 123 120 163 231 345 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.0 18.5 17.9 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 50.4 51.9 53.4 54.9 58.2 61.6 64.9 67.8 70.2 72.2 73.8 75.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 16 16 17 15 13 10 9 7 5 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 42 49 52 54 59 59 66 64 68 86 78 79 85 81 73 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 19. 24. 28. 32. 37. 42. 46. 48. 51. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 22. 32. 39. 45. 50. 57. 62. 67. 67. 72. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 48.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.5 27.0 to 143.0 1.00 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.41 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.1% 9.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 13.1% 11.6% 4.0% 0.8% 5.7% 7.7% 17.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.7% 7.9% Consensus: 2.2% 9.6% 8.0% 3.3% 0.3% 2.6% 2.8% 8.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/16/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 29 37 47 57 64 53 37 42 47 52 52 57 62 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 35 45 55 62 51 35 40 45 50 50 55 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 32 42 52 59 48 32 37 42 47 47 52 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 24 34 44 51 40 24 29 34 39 39 44 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT