* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/16/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 47 57 65 71 76 81 83 85 83 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 47 57 65 71 64 42 40 36 34 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 46 53 52 37 37 35 33 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 2 4 2 6 6 8 15 20 29 27 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 0 6 4 SHEAR DIR 135 148 126 147 181 218 106 213 283 328 310 320 316 326 332 315 261 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.4 30.9 31.1 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 162 166 166 174 174 173 173 172 171 170 169 166 166 166 165 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 41 39 41 42 42 44 46 50 54 61 61 64 67 65 60 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 41 38 34 33 18 1 -2 -16 -21 -7 20 45 64 69 78 69 64 200 MB DIV -12 -2 2 0 6 23 13 18 -29 -7 -48 -2 13 -10 16 10 -23 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 6 2 0 0 0 -2 0 -3 -3 -2 1 1 6 5 LAND (KM) 1372 1281 1132 992 852 625 279 99 134 116 -15 -67 18 -1 -1 2 4 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.6 19.8 19.5 19.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.9 49.4 50.9 52.5 55.8 59.2 62.6 65.6 68.1 70.1 71.8 72.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 16 13 10 9 6 4 1 0 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 38 45 50 55 58 62 66 64 66 82 92 88 88 89 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 37. 41. 44. 44. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 22. 32. 40. 46. 51. 56. 58. 60. 58. 58. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 46.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.91 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 27.0 to 143.0 0.95 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.57 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 15.8% 10.1% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.0% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 4.8% 13.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 2.2% Consensus: 1.7% 8.2% 5.5% 2.6% 0.1% 1.5% 6.6% 5.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/16/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 37 47 57 65 71 64 42 40 36 34 37 37 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 35 45 55 63 69 62 40 38 34 32 35 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 41 51 59 65 58 36 34 30 28 31 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 34 44 52 58 51 29 27 23 21 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT