* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/16/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 47 58 65 72 78 81 84 83 82 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 38 47 58 65 72 78 69 46 34 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 51 57 54 39 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 4 6 5 1 2 4 8 10 18 22 28 22 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -3 -6 -6 -3 -3 0 10 6 4 SHEAR DIR 110 122 162 116 146 225 274 210 264 314 313 319 328 322 317 318 275 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.4 30.7 31.0 30.9 30.7 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 158 158 162 164 170 174 174 173 172 171 170 169 167 167 168 169 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 41 43 40 41 42 42 44 50 53 58 62 63 66 66 61 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 6 5 6 6 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 39 33 31 12 0 -10 -14 -25 8 27 56 66 85 71 46 200 MB DIV 5 -4 3 8 6 6 10 5 -24 -50 -16 -22 10 24 23 -23 -8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 3 5 0 -1 1 -4 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 1466 1388 1297 1149 1011 756 474 186 119 170 110 -3 -82 -57 -77 -67 -40 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.0 20.0 19.6 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.3 47.8 49.3 50.8 54.0 57.3 60.7 63.8 66.4 68.4 70.1 71.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 15 15 16 16 16 14 11 9 7 5 1 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 32 33 38 44 51 55 59 63 69 63 65 75 82 80 75 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 32. 37. 41. 45. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 4. 1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 22. 33. 40. 47. 53. 56. 59. 58. 57. 55. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 45.0 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.92 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.79 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 15.3% 9.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 19.1% 15.3% 4.5% 1.4% 8.9% 11.3% 29.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 2.9% 8.7% Consensus: 2.3% 13.0% 9.4% 3.7% 0.5% 3.7% 9.5% 12.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 7.5% 5.2% 2.3% .2% 1.8% 4.7% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/16/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/16/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 38 47 58 65 72 78 69 46 34 29 28 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 36 45 56 63 70 76 67 44 32 27 26 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 31 40 51 58 65 71 62 39 27 22 21 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 33 44 51 58 64 55 32 20 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT