* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/15/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 38 45 56 63 69 73 78 80 81 77 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 38 45 56 63 69 73 78 80 81 77 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 28 31 35 40 46 51 55 58 58 56 53 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 7 3 2 7 4 1 2 10 11 19 23 30 33 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 -2 1 4 12 4 SHEAR DIR 98 104 103 136 94 200 241 18 256 300 327 323 325 306 302 287 257 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 158 158 160 166 174 174 174 173 171 170 168 166 169 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 39 41 42 39 40 42 43 46 49 53 58 57 61 62 61 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 40 38 31 7 -6 -11 -22 -29 -20 2 29 52 53 66 61 200 MB DIV 30 3 -5 -1 3 1 23 12 3 -45 -46 -32 -1 38 37 75 57 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 1 4 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 6 8 15 LAND (KM) 1561 1477 1390 1326 1177 900 669 325 148 161 195 93 38 13 58 195 416 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.4 20.0 20.4 20.3 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.7 46.1 47.5 49.0 52.1 55.4 58.8 62.2 65.2 67.7 69.4 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 16 16 13 9 7 3 0 5 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 32 33 37 49 54 57 63 66 67 63 65 66 64 64 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 42. 45. 46. 48. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 4. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 13. 20. 31. 39. 44. 48. 53. 55. 56. 52. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 43.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.92 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.89 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 15.6% 10.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.3% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 3.2% 3.4% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 7.3% 4.9% 2.9% 0.1% 1.2% 5.8% 2.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .6% 4.6% 2.9% 1.4% 0% .6% 2.9% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/15/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 38 45 56 63 69 73 78 80 81 77 76 75 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 44 55 62 68 72 77 79 80 76 75 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 39 50 57 63 67 72 74 75 71 70 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 42 49 55 59 64 66 67 63 62 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT