* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/15/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 38 48 57 68 76 83 89 90 90 85 84 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 38 48 57 68 76 83 89 76 48 35 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 38 45 53 61 67 61 42 32 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 6 2 3 2 3 1 2 8 11 20 26 31 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 -3 -6 -5 -6 -2 2 8 10 SHEAR DIR 108 97 105 108 93 113 237 47 233 289 303 317 320 313 310 310 299 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 136 137 138 141 146 149 151 153 154 153 156 159 159 156 153 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 39 42 44 44 41 43 44 45 50 51 57 64 65 69 67 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 8 7 7 6 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 49 43 41 23 10 3 -4 -1 -12 23 37 72 81 119 120 200 MB DIV 22 22 6 -4 3 14 22 5 0 -30 -52 -38 0 32 35 22 20 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 -1 5 2 -4 1 -3 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1631 1545 1455 1369 1300 1022 761 502 186 118 128 86 -24 -61 -45 -26 49 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 19.6 19.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.7 44.9 46.3 47.7 50.6 53.7 57.0 60.3 63.3 66.1 68.3 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 14 16 16 16 14 11 10 7 4 1 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 32 32 34 43 51 56 59 63 68 63 66 74 77 70 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 8. 3. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -9. -9. -11. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 23. 32. 43. 51. 58. 64. 65. 65. 60. 59. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.1 42.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.93 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.69 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 12.0% 7.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 2.0% 4.5% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% Consensus: 1.0% 5.4% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.9% 6.2% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/15/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 31 38 48 57 68 76 83 89 76 48 35 30 30 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 37 47 56 67 75 82 88 75 47 34 29 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 42 51 62 70 77 83 70 42 29 24 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 34 43 54 62 69 75 62 34 21 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT