* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/15/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 54 63 71 80 85 90 92 94 93 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 54 63 71 80 85 90 78 49 46 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 49 56 64 72 81 88 80 50 48 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 8 5 4 2 3 3 4 7 13 15 21 27 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 -7 -8 -6 -2 -1 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 115 99 101 99 99 76 221 306 5 20 322 338 329 332 321 324 330 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 136 136 141 144 148 151 152 153 154 157 165 168 164 167 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 42 42 43 45 45 43 44 46 50 53 56 62 68 74 74 69 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 45 46 42 31 13 3 -3 -7 -15 0 21 50 68 94 107 200 MB DIV 10 16 17 0 0 7 7 17 2 8 -45 -37 -37 11 32 12 4 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 4 2 -1 1 0 -1 -2 -6 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1707 1617 1531 1442 1363 1143 880 646 320 137 98 131 -24 -47 48 53 51 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.5 19.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.7 42.8 43.9 45.1 46.4 49.3 52.2 55.5 58.8 62.0 64.9 67.6 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 13 12 11 7 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 31 32 32 38 49 54 58 62 65 65 66 83 92 89 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 12. 11. 8. 5. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 24. 33. 41. 50. 55. 60. 62. 64. 63. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 41.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 14.5% 9.7% 7.3% 5.1% 11.8% 14.4% 32.5% Logistic: 2.1% 7.8% 5.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.1% 5.6% 9.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.4% Consensus: 1.9% 8.1% 5.5% 3.0% 1.9% 5.7% 6.9% 14.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/15/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 46 54 63 71 80 85 90 78 49 46 46 44 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 43 51 60 68 77 82 87 75 46 43 43 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 45 54 62 71 76 81 69 40 37 37 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 37 46 54 63 68 73 61 32 29 29 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT