* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/15/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 61 70 80 89 94 96 98 96 95 92 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 61 70 80 89 94 96 68 62 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 52 62 72 81 85 62 57 59 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 1 6 5 8 14 15 14 22 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 -4 -5 -5 -7 -5 -5 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 116 118 95 101 92 85 81 295 14 356 331 313 332 306 310 311 322 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 133 135 136 138 141 146 149 151 152 154 154 158 159 157 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 43 44 43 45 45 44 44 45 48 52 54 56 63 68 71 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 11 13 13 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 49 45 42 38 21 4 -2 -6 0 -2 39 48 85 101 139 200 MB DIV -15 8 19 23 15 -1 5 14 9 14 -21 -27 -20 15 59 35 67 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 0 2 5 3 -3 5 1 4 -5 0 -2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1815 1723 1632 1548 1460 1297 1025 773 505 206 142 138 50 -28 6 32 84 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 19.7 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.5 41.6 42.7 43.9 45.1 47.8 50.7 53.8 57.0 60.3 63.3 66.2 68.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 14 14 16 16 16 14 13 12 8 3 3 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 27 31 32 34 44 50 55 58 64 69 62 69 76 71 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 36. 45. 55. 64. 69. 71. 73. 71. 70. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 40.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.85 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.65 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.7% 7.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 2.2% 5.2% 11.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 1.0% 5.9% 3.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.9% 6.0% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .5% 3.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0% .4% 3.0% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/15/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/15/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 61 70 80 89 94 96 68 62 60 58 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 39 49 59 68 78 87 92 94 66 60 58 56 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 44 54 63 73 82 87 89 61 55 53 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 36 46 55 65 74 79 81 53 47 45 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT