* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/14/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 40 49 59 67 76 85 91 92 93 93 94 94 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 40 49 59 67 76 85 91 92 63 63 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 42 50 58 67 76 81 59 60 63 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 7 6 4 4 4 1 4 6 15 19 17 16 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -5 -1 1 -3 -6 -8 -6 -4 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 91 116 121 115 130 125 118 173 203 298 312 319 334 313 326 309 322 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 131 133 135 137 140 144 147 151 152 155 155 163 164 161 157 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 39 41 43 41 42 44 43 42 45 50 52 57 60 66 73 71 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 31 40 42 43 39 34 23 1 -13 -10 -7 -1 19 26 63 91 120 200 MB DIV -17 -10 5 19 18 -8 4 13 6 -1 -11 -31 -2 -13 7 28 17 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 2 3 -5 -4 -4 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1906 1811 1723 1638 1547 1394 1114 865 622 299 138 150 49 -13 57 61 92 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.5 19.8 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.7 40.8 42.0 43.1 44.3 46.9 49.8 52.8 55.9 59.3 62.7 66.1 69.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 16 16 16 16 14 12 7 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 25 29 32 32 40 49 53 56 64 69 63 77 80 77 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 22. 28. 32. 35. 39. 42. 43. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 9. 7. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 24. 34. 42. 51. 60. 66. 67. 68. 68. 69. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 39.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.63 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 11.0% 7.3% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 11.2% 7.9% 3.4% 1.3% 4.3% 6.7% 20.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% Consensus: 1.5% 8.0% 5.3% 3.0% 0.4% 1.6% 6.4% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .7% 4.5% 3.1% 1.5% .2% .8% 3.2% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/14/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 40 49 59 67 76 85 91 92 63 63 64 64 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 38 47 57 65 74 83 89 90 61 61 62 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 34 43 53 61 70 79 85 86 57 57 58 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 34 44 52 61 70 76 77 48 48 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT