* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/14/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 38 47 54 63 69 77 82 84 83 79 75 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 38 47 54 63 69 77 82 84 83 79 75 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 45 52 58 66 72 72 68 64 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 10 10 6 4 4 6 2 6 14 21 26 29 37 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -4 -4 -5 -6 -4 -1 1 -5 -6 -7 -4 -5 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 73 93 113 118 114 124 132 170 230 284 286 291 308 312 298 272 257 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 129 130 132 135 138 143 145 147 149 152 149 149 146 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 43 42 43 43 44 44 48 54 56 59 60 57 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 6 8 8 9 10 12 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 38 39 39 32 26 16 -13 -22 -27 -16 6 56 56 90 117 200 MB DIV -27 -13 -6 9 21 -3 -3 5 27 17 -7 -27 5 42 34 39 88 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 5 3 1 3 1 -3 -3 0 -2 3 LAND (KM) 2026 1946 1868 1786 1701 1539 1292 1032 787 507 335 283 355 306 271 306 464 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.6 40.6 41.7 42.8 45.3 48.2 51.2 54.4 57.5 60.9 64.3 67.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 15 15 16 16 16 16 11 6 2 4 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 24 27 32 35 45 47 49 55 60 66 62 62 61 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. -0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 22. 29. 38. 44. 52. 57. 59. 58. 54. 50. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 38.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.98 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.5% 7.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 14.6% 12.0% 7.7% 3.3% 6.5% 7.0% 21.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% Consensus: 1.9% 9.2% 6.7% 4.6% 1.1% 2.3% 6.3% 7.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/14/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 32 38 47 54 63 69 77 82 84 83 79 75 70 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 31 37 46 53 62 68 76 81 83 82 78 74 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 42 49 58 64 72 77 79 78 74 70 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 40 49 55 63 68 70 69 65 61 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT