* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/14/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 46 53 61 67 74 82 85 86 82 79 75 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 38 46 53 61 67 74 82 85 86 82 79 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 44 51 58 66 73 76 74 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 11 10 8 4 6 5 3 4 9 20 22 32 32 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -4 -5 -5 -6 -3 1 -2 -7 -7 -3 -8 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 60 73 94 112 118 127 122 168 208 244 296 285 303 312 309 285 268 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 129 130 133 137 140 144 146 149 151 152 149 148 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 41 40 41 42 43 43 45 42 44 45 51 54 56 60 58 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 8 10 12 12 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 30 38 39 37 30 19 -1 -21 -27 -20 -27 41 49 82 102 200 MB DIV -16 -27 -13 -6 9 12 1 1 13 15 5 -29 -7 32 35 45 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 4 4 3 3 4 1 -2 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2118 2026 1946 1861 1786 1613 1434 1148 918 636 389 292 361 330 281 276 359 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.1 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.4 38.5 39.6 40.7 41.7 44.1 46.7 49.8 52.8 56.0 59.2 62.7 66.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 10 11 11 14 15 15 16 16 16 14 8 5 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 22 24 31 32 41 47 48 49 59 65 63 62 62 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -4. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 28. 36. 42. 49. 57. 60. 61. 57. 54. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 37.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.0 109.2 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 12.4% 8.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 14.7% 12.8% 8.7% 3.9% 9.6% 5.6% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 2.0% 9.4% 7.3% 5.1% 1.3% 3.3% 5.8% 6.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 5.2% 3.6% 2.5% .6% 1.6% 2.9% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/14/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 31 38 46 53 61 67 74 82 85 86 82 79 75 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 37 45 52 60 66 73 81 84 85 81 78 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 41 48 56 62 69 77 80 81 77 74 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 40 48 54 61 69 72 73 69 66 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT