* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/14/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 57 62 73 78 86 89 89 89 84 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 57 62 73 78 86 89 89 89 84 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 39 46 56 68 79 86 88 85 80 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 10 12 11 8 8 8 2 7 8 18 23 32 38 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 1 0 -5 -5 -3 -3 -2 -2 -6 -7 -5 -12 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 30 53 65 90 100 97 78 57 76 11 350 313 310 307 310 290 257 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 128 128 129 133 136 138 141 145 148 149 150 147 146 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 700-500 MB RH 38 42 41 41 43 43 46 46 46 48 50 52 59 65 73 75 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 10 10 12 13 14 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 32 39 39 38 46 44 47 43 24 9 -4 -3 16 15 50 84 121 200 MB DIV 17 -5 -18 -6 -1 9 3 19 13 14 10 12 14 13 46 75 121 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 -1 5 9 5 2 7 4 1 1 0 5 LAND (KM) 2037 2080 1988 1906 1818 1659 1499 1295 1048 834 531 344 309 382 427 426 518 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.6 38.7 39.7 40.7 42.8 45.2 48.0 50.8 53.9 57.1 60.4 63.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 16 16 16 13 7 5 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 21 22 23 28 32 34 45 47 50 53 58 59 59 57 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -4. -6. -3. -2. -2. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 32. 37. 48. 53. 61. 64. 64. 64. 59. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 36.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 109.2 to 0.0 0.90 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 13.0% 8.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 6.6% 5.2% 2.4% 0.8% 2.3% 2.0% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 7.1% 4.9% 3.1% 0.3% 0.8% 4.3% 3.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 4.0% 2.4% 1.5% .1% .4% 2.1% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/14/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/14/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 57 62 73 78 86 89 89 89 84 79 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 37 45 55 60 71 76 84 87 87 87 82 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 41 51 56 67 72 80 83 83 83 78 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 33 43 48 59 64 72 75 75 75 70 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT