* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/13/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 45 53 58 66 73 80 84 87 89 87 87 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 37 45 53 58 66 73 80 84 87 89 87 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 50 60 70 78 83 85 84 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 14 9 8 5 3 5 10 6 17 19 27 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 1 -2 -5 -3 -1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 15 34 58 64 80 103 91 68 45 18 319 349 326 330 325 308 303 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 128 128 129 130 135 136 140 143 148 151 152 150 150 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 37 38 41 39 40 42 40 46 44 46 46 51 55 60 64 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 25 34 41 39 37 45 40 40 23 14 1 -11 -3 -10 20 48 90 200 MB DIV -1 19 0 -21 -8 5 4 2 2 2 12 8 9 -6 5 19 69 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 2 1 1 4 3 2 -1 1 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1912 2035 2080 1987 1896 1745 1571 1422 1180 911 662 326 204 225 267 187 131 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.4 16.8 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.4 37.5 38.5 39.5 41.4 43.7 46.2 49.1 52.1 55.5 59.0 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 10 12 13 14 16 17 17 15 11 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 21 22 24 31 32 38 48 53 55 63 65 71 67 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 42. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 20. 28. 33. 41. 48. 55. 59. 62. 64. 62. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 35.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/13/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 36.6 to 2.8 1.00 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.59 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.8% 10.1% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 7.2% 5.6% 2.8% 1.0% 3.1% 1.6% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.9% 6.0% 3.6% 0.3% 1.1% 4.0% 2.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 4.9% 3.0% 1.8% .1% .5% 2.0% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 10/13/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/13/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 31 37 45 53 58 66 73 80 84 87 89 87 87 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 35 43 51 56 64 71 78 82 85 87 85 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 38 46 51 59 66 73 77 80 82 80 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 31 39 44 52 59 66 70 73 75 73 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT