* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/13/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 30 35 43 52 61 65 73 76 79 83 85 90 95 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 30 35 43 52 61 65 73 76 79 83 72 63 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 41 48 56 63 68 72 73 57 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 10 9 10 7 10 9 8 0 1 6 9 16 11 13 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 3 0 -5 -5 -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -4 -6 -8 -6 SHEAR DIR 3 22 42 72 73 96 103 103 73 149 269 284 310 337 351 10 355 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 125 125 127 128 131 135 139 143 146 152 155 158 157 167 163 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 37 37 39 41 38 39 39 43 44 45 48 51 55 61 61 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 30 35 32 34 28 34 27 10 1 -7 0 8 1 26 41 200 MB DIV -19 -2 20 -11 -22 -15 0 -3 4 13 8 2 -28 9 -35 -11 1 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 3 7 0 -6 -6 0 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1775 1890 2002 2104 2072 1897 1722 1542 1295 1006 747 359 85 101 -7 11 67 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.9 36.0 37.0 38.1 40.3 42.5 45.1 48.1 51.3 54.7 58.5 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 13 15 15 17 20 20 19 16 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 15 17 19 22 26 32 35 46 51 56 63 68 67 80 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 41. 42. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -12. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 10. 18. 27. 36. 40. 48. 51. 54. 58. 60. 65. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 33.8 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/13/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.3 109.2 to 0.0 0.71 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 13.1% 9.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2.2% 1.3% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.8% 4.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.8% 3.7% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/13/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 30 35 43 52 61 65 73 76 79 83 72 63 68 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 34 42 51 60 64 72 75 78 82 71 62 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 37 46 55 59 67 70 73 77 66 57 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 29 38 47 51 59 62 65 69 58 49 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT