* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/13/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 41 50 59 63 71 75 78 82 82 86 89 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 33 41 50 59 63 71 75 78 82 82 86 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 38 43 50 56 60 65 68 72 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 11 10 11 9 11 7 4 2 5 8 17 15 15 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 2 2 -2 -5 -3 -1 -5 -3 -6 -5 -7 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 340 9 29 48 76 89 99 95 97 217 264 271 290 329 335 6 339 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 123 124 126 128 128 133 136 140 143 148 152 155 156 158 160 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 42 39 39 41 43 40 42 41 46 44 46 48 52 57 59 67 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 9 850 MB ENV VOR 32 18 15 25 30 29 30 25 30 16 0 -13 -12 -3 -14 -2 31 200 MB DIV -30 -15 0 16 -13 -8 0 6 4 13 14 10 -14 11 -16 -16 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 3 1 1 6 2 -1 -7 -2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1622 1712 1805 1911 2023 2058 1876 1688 1508 1202 929 597 222 95 103 38 20 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.5 18.2 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.2 17.2 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.3 33.2 34.1 35.1 36.2 38.4 40.6 43.1 46.0 49.2 52.5 56.2 60.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 13 15 15 17 19 20 20 17 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 13 15 19 22 28 32 39 47 52 58 64 64 68 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 16. 25. 34. 38. 46. 50. 53. 57. 57. 61. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 32.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/13/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.72 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.2% 7.2% 4.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.9% 2.4% 1.7% 0.8% 4.3% 4.4% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.7% 2.5% 1.9% 0.3% 1.5% 3.9% 2.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/13/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 33 41 50 59 63 71 75 78 82 82 86 89 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 32 40 49 58 62 70 74 77 81 81 85 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 36 45 54 58 66 70 73 77 77 81 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 28 37 46 50 58 62 65 69 69 73 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT