* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/13/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 27 32 39 48 55 62 66 71 73 75 73 72 72 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 27 32 39 48 55 62 66 71 73 75 73 69 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 22 23 24 27 30 34 40 46 53 58 62 64 61 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 11 10 11 12 10 7 8 10 14 18 24 32 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -2 -1 -1 2 -1 -4 -5 -4 -4 -6 -6 -4 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 314 338 8 37 47 77 94 85 65 18 9 348 355 353 17 38 43 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 122 124 125 128 130 132 135 138 141 145 150 155 160 159 164 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 43 44 41 41 43 43 43 45 47 46 45 46 51 54 61 65 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 40 42 51 50 50 54 47 45 35 26 27 18 22 12 11 200 MB DIV 12 -18 -12 3 14 -11 -1 1 -1 10 36 2 -21 -55 -40 -41 -41 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 2 -2 -3 -1 -3 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1499 1586 1678 1756 1845 2051 1926 1735 1545 1346 1170 849 531 187 60 46 -70 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.3 16.7 16.2 15.8 15.5 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.0 32.9 33.7 34.6 36.6 38.6 40.7 43.1 45.9 48.9 52.1 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 15 16 19 20 19 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 12 14 18 23 24 28 33 38 50 56 64 65 66 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 27. 32. 35. 39. 42. 44. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 23. 30. 37. 41. 46. 48. 50. 48. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.9 31.2 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/13/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.70 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.71 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 10.0% 6.8% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.9% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.4% 2.9% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 2.4% 1.3% .9% 0% .2% 1.4% .4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/13/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 25 27 32 39 48 55 62 66 71 73 75 73 69 47 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 32 39 48 55 62 66 71 73 75 73 69 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 28 35 44 51 58 62 67 69 71 69 65 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 38 45 52 56 61 63 65 63 59 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT