* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/12/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 32 38 47 53 60 64 69 73 75 77 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 32 38 47 53 60 64 69 73 75 77 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 21 20 20 21 23 25 28 32 37 42 48 53 59 64 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 15 12 13 14 14 11 9 9 11 14 14 21 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -1 0 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -6 -7 -7 -8 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 298 311 345 13 33 64 79 81 66 63 18 358 350 354 12 12 13 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 123 124 127 131 133 136 138 141 143 148 151 155 157 160 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 41 40 42 40 39 45 42 47 45 51 48 48 49 54 57 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 10 8 9 8 9 7 6 5 3 4 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 53 48 49 54 43 51 48 46 36 23 20 24 24 17 27 200 MB DIV -3 7 -6 -15 3 20 -4 -5 -4 5 8 6 3 -13 -12 -3 19 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 3 5 7 LAND (KM) 1424 1532 1615 1696 1777 1941 1958 1773 1586 1400 1234 1108 759 439 171 65 4 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.2 16.9 16.0 15.4 14.9 14.5 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.6 31.6 32.4 33.2 34.0 35.6 37.5 39.3 41.3 43.7 46.4 49.3 52.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 17 18 18 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 11 13 17 24 27 24 28 34 41 52 57 64 63 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 28. 33. 36. 40. 43. 45. 48. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -16. -19. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 13. 22. 28. 35. 39. 44. 48. 50. 52. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 30.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/12/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.75 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 8.6% 5.6% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.3% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 2.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 2.1% 1.0% .8% 0% .1% 1.3% .4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/12/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 25 32 38 47 53 60 64 69 73 75 77 79 78 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 32 38 47 53 60 64 69 73 75 77 79 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 29 35 44 50 57 61 66 70 72 74 76 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 23 29 38 44 51 55 60 64 66 68 70 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT