* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/12/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 41 47 52 56 61 67 72 74 76 78 80 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 41 47 52 56 61 67 72 74 76 78 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 28 29 31 34 37 40 43 48 54 60 67 74 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 13 13 14 13 16 18 16 16 12 12 11 14 11 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -2 0 1 3 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 287 297 314 351 11 40 66 99 90 88 58 35 352 354 352 8 355 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 122 123 126 130 133 135 137 140 144 146 151 156 157 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 46 41 40 42 40 40 43 45 47 50 48 48 47 49 51 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 51 46 45 54 47 45 49 49 44 31 30 25 21 29 14 200 MB DIV 9 -6 9 -3 -6 12 -4 -2 -16 1 6 -1 -15 -24 -1 11 0 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1316 1426 1522 1592 1672 1824 2004 1862 1676 1492 1312 1142 959 760 381 37 165 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.1 15.2 14.5 13.9 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.6 30.6 31.5 32.2 33.0 34.5 36.2 37.9 39.6 41.5 43.7 46.2 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 17 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 10 11 15 19 25 25 23 27 34 38 50 54 60 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. 43. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 31. 37. 42. 44. 46. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 29.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/12/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.69 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.6 109.2 to 0.0 0.78 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.2% 6.1% 4.8% 3.1% 8.1% 7.5% 13.1% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 3.0% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.3% 1.7% 1.1% 3.2% 3.5% 5.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .4% 1.9% 1.1% .8% .5% 1.6% 1.7% 2.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/12/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 31 35 41 47 52 56 61 67 72 74 76 78 80 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 35 41 47 52 56 61 67 72 74 76 78 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 44 49 53 58 64 69 71 73 75 77 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 37 42 46 51 57 62 64 66 68 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT