* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/12/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 38 44 47 52 55 61 66 71 74 76 79 80 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 38 44 47 52 55 61 66 71 74 76 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 34 37 40 44 48 51 56 62 68 76 83 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 15 13 11 11 12 15 17 15 12 8 8 13 15 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -3 -3 0 2 3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -7 -7 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 284 289 294 307 339 33 65 83 94 81 77 47 352 349 3 14 6 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 120 121 121 124 127 129 133 135 136 141 143 148 152 158 161 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 45 41 41 43 38 44 42 47 46 50 47 48 48 51 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 11 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 9 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 33 33 34 30 49 38 53 42 44 38 27 18 16 23 13 200 MB DIV -1 8 4 8 -6 -2 1 -14 0 0 7 8 0 -18 -11 -8 11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -6 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1187 1308 1405 1498 1578 1744 1923 2009 1803 1602 1430 1255 1111 768 404 101 217 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.6 16.6 15.9 15.2 14.7 14.5 14.6 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 28.3 29.3 30.2 31.1 31.9 33.6 35.4 37.3 39.2 41.3 43.5 46.2 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 12 14 15 17 19 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 9 11 16 21 27 24 28 34 40 52 55 65 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -11. -12. -15. -15. -18. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 12. 17. 20. 26. 31. 36. 39. 41. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.4 28.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/12/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.65 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.44 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.67 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 10.8% 7.4% 6.0% 3.9% 9.3% 8.6% 13.1% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.7% 2.1% 1.3% 3.7% 3.4% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0% .6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/12/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 36 38 44 47 52 55 61 66 71 74 76 79 80 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 37 43 46 51 54 60 65 70 73 75 78 79 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 34 40 43 48 51 57 62 67 70 72 75 76 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 34 37 42 45 51 56 61 64 66 69 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT