* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/12/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 35 37 42 47 51 55 59 65 67 70 71 73 74 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 35 37 42 47 51 55 59 65 67 70 71 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 33 33 35 39 43 48 52 56 60 65 71 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 14 8 9 14 9 15 16 16 18 12 14 17 25 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -4 0 0 0 1 2 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -7 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 266 283 291 293 310 3 49 61 85 66 78 34 21 352 6 6 14 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 124 123 122 123 126 130 132 135 136 139 142 145 148 152 156 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 49 48 45 44 43 43 41 44 47 51 53 52 51 49 54 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 42 48 52 46 57 53 47 55 50 46 32 22 18 19 25 200 MB DIV 0 3 20 13 31 -3 0 -21 -5 -11 18 10 -1 -21 -1 0 -9 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 -3 1 -2 -10 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 1069 1195 1297 1384 1457 1598 1749 1929 1921 1726 1539 1354 1189 1058 735 380 94 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.0 16.2 15.3 14.6 14.0 13.8 13.7 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.5 29.4 30.2 30.9 32.3 33.8 35.5 37.3 39.1 41.2 43.6 46.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 7 7 9 10 9 10 11 13 14 16 18 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 12 12 11 13 18 23 26 23 27 35 41 53 57 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. 37. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 30. 32. 35. 36. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 27.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/12/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.65 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.47 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.88 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 10.8% 7.3% 6.0% 4.0% 9.2% 9.0% 13.5% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.9% 2.6% 2.1% 1.3% 3.4% 3.3% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .3% 2.4% 1.3% 1.0% .6% 1.7% 1.6% 2.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/12/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 35 37 42 47 51 55 59 65 67 70 71 73 74 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 34 36 41 46 50 54 58 64 66 69 70 72 73 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 31 33 38 43 47 51 55 61 63 66 67 69 70 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 33 38 42 46 50 56 58 61 62 64 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT