* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/11/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 43 45 49 52 57 61 67 70 75 82 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 43 45 49 52 57 61 67 70 75 82 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 34 34 35 38 41 44 48 52 56 62 68 77 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 17 13 9 15 13 14 16 14 18 17 15 11 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 -2 0 0 1 4 1 0 -4 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 242 267 284 301 296 346 40 60 81 78 71 72 49 27 359 4 353 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 124 123 122 126 130 132 134 136 137 140 145 147 151 155 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 46 43 43 41 46 46 51 49 55 49 49 46 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 10 10 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 6 850 MB ENV VOR 46 53 42 40 44 44 44 60 47 45 40 42 27 17 10 2 14 200 MB DIV 6 0 -10 2 5 13 -25 -3 -11 1 -12 5 6 -12 -21 -43 -29 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 -2 1 -3 0 -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 -4 -1 2 LAND (KM) 944 1076 1176 1267 1344 1478 1600 1758 1933 1856 1689 1514 1322 1148 951 820 514 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.7 16.1 15.0 14.3 13.6 13.2 12.9 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.3 27.5 28.4 29.2 29.9 31.2 32.4 33.9 35.5 37.1 38.9 40.7 43.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 6 8 9 8 9 9 10 12 14 15 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 12 12 12 13 17 18 21 24 21 25 32 36 46 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -18. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 14. 17. 22. 26. 32. 35. 40. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.5 26.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/11/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 27.0 to 143.0 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.80 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 11.8% 8.1% 6.5% 4.1% 9.5% 9.0% 12.9% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.4% 3.1% 2.3% 1.4% 3.6% 3.3% 4.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 2.7% 1.5% 1.1% .7% 1.8% 1.6% 2.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/11/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 36 38 43 45 49 52 57 61 67 70 75 82 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 35 37 42 44 48 51 56 60 66 69 74 81 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 34 39 41 45 48 53 57 63 66 71 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 28 33 35 39 42 47 51 57 60 65 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT