* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/11/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 41 46 49 55 59 63 70 75 81 84 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 41 46 49 55 59 63 70 75 81 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 35 34 36 39 43 48 53 58 63 69 77 88 96 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 10 8 9 12 7 15 10 10 14 7 6 6 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 -3 0 0 5 5 2 1 0 -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 234 229 268 293 321 331 15 44 67 110 76 99 92 64 321 333 298 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 131 128 126 124 127 131 132 133 134 136 137 139 144 147 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 54 52 51 48 47 51 53 56 57 54 52 48 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 11 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 36 46 52 43 43 50 45 52 54 44 41 36 25 18 8 3 -4 200 MB DIV 27 10 -7 5 27 7 4 -14 -9 12 -6 10 -29 -17 -28 4 -57 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 1 1 0 1 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 813 942 1028 1105 1172 1279 1383 1502 1658 1805 1803 1753 1633 1434 1225 1018 832 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.0 15.5 14.6 13.8 13.2 12.8 12.7 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.1 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.4 30.4 31.5 32.9 34.2 35.7 37.3 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 6 5 6 8 7 7 7 8 11 12 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 15 14 13 13 15 17 17 17 18 21 22 21 28 34 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 814 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 20. 24. 28. 35. 40. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 25.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/11/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.7 109.2 to 0.0 0.65 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 13.2% 9.0% 6.7% 4.1% 10.3% 10.0% 15.4% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.3% 3.7% 2.5% 1.4% 3.8% 3.6% 5.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.1% 2.3% 1.2% .7% 1.9% 1.8% 2.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/11/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 35 35 37 41 46 49 55 59 63 70 75 81 84 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 34 36 40 45 48 54 58 62 69 74 80 83 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 33 37 42 45 51 55 59 66 71 77 80 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 27 31 36 39 45 49 53 60 65 71 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT