* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/11/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 32 33 35 38 43 47 54 59 65 67 74 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 32 33 35 38 43 47 54 59 65 67 74 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 31 30 30 32 35 39 44 51 57 65 74 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 14 15 10 11 15 8 13 9 12 12 7 10 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 3 1 -1 2 3 2 4 3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 269 267 250 241 254 281 309 359 5 53 107 70 85 31 33 344 322 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 131 129 129 125 123 123 126 129 131 131 133 135 136 139 143 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 55 56 54 50 50 50 54 54 57 57 53 52 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 15 13 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 30 23 25 23 30 35 47 47 44 52 44 39 30 20 11 200 MB DIV 29 20 23 6 -9 47 20 -13 -6 2 5 6 22 16 23 -7 -4 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -1 4 -1 2 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 1 -1 2 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 514 663 770 857 934 1070 1170 1273 1384 1532 1694 1878 1934 1728 1539 1365 1140 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.3 16.6 16.4 15.7 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.3 23.7 24.7 25.5 26.2 27.4 28.3 29.3 30.4 31.8 33.3 35.0 37.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 8 7 6 4 5 7 7 8 9 11 14 14 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 14 14 12 12 13 15 16 17 18 22 26 26 33 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 37. 39. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -18. -18. -19. -19. -22. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 24. 29. 35. 37. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 22.3 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/11/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 27.0 to 143.0 0.60 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.4 109.2 to 0.0 0.45 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 12.4% 8.3% 5.8% 0.0% 9.3% 9.1% 15.2% Logistic: 3.4% 6.2% 6.3% 2.8% 0.4% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 7.0% 5.1% 2.9% 0.1% 3.9% 3.7% 5.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 4.0% 3.0% 1.9% 0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/11/2024 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 33 33 32 33 35 38 43 47 54 59 65 67 74 76 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 29 30 32 35 40 44 51 56 62 64 71 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 25 26 28 31 36 40 47 52 58 60 67 69 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 20 22 25 30 34 41 46 52 54 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT