* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/10/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 28 30 32 35 41 44 52 55 62 65 72 76 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 28 30 32 35 41 44 52 55 62 65 72 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 23 24 27 31 36 41 48 56 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 14 14 11 10 14 10 9 10 8 14 10 9 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 3 4 4 3 3 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 277 277 259 239 266 275 326 5 41 90 87 83 78 41 47 347 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 132 127 126 125 121 122 124 126 128 130 132 135 136 140 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 55 53 50 49 47 45 50 46 54 51 56 51 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 15 13 11 10 10 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 36 27 24 16 20 26 33 45 29 31 28 31 21 18 10 200 MB DIV 57 42 10 22 1 4 6 -10 -22 -23 -19 -8 -1 0 6 -14 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -8 -3 0 0 2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 332 491 620 731 819 990 1120 1221 1339 1492 1662 1865 1958 1742 1538 1324 1114 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.1 16.6 15.9 15.6 15.1 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 20.6 22.1 23.3 24.3 25.1 26.6 27.7 28.7 29.9 31.4 33.0 34.9 37.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 11 9 8 7 5 5 7 8 8 10 11 12 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 11 11 12 10 11 13 14 15 17 22 26 26 32 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 27. 31. 35. 37. 40. 42. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -18. -17. -20. -19. -21. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 19. 27. 30. 37. 40. 47. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 20.6 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/10/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.57 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 27.0 to 143.0 0.66 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.8 109.2 to 0.0 0.42 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 11.4% 7.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.8% 3.4% 1.7% 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.3% 3.7% 2.3% 0.1% 0.5% 2.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0% .2% 1.4% .2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/10/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 28 30 32 35 41 44 52 55 62 65 72 76 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 26 28 30 33 39 42 50 53 60 63 70 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 22 24 26 29 35 38 46 49 56 59 66 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 17 19 22 28 31 39 42 49 52 59 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT