* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 10/10/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 32 32 32 34 35 37 42 47 52 57 61 69 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 32 32 32 34 35 37 42 47 52 57 61 69 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 27 26 26 27 29 32 37 42 48 56 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 11 16 14 16 15 8 16 9 14 13 6 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 3 3 0 -3 -6 -8 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 283 281 285 292 269 265 293 303 355 5 56 95 83 111 90 63 304 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 137 133 129 124 122 120 122 124 126 127 129 131 133 134 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 58 56 55 52 49 47 47 50 49 52 51 51 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 17 17 15 13 11 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 40 34 33 24 5 -3 13 8 24 27 25 24 23 21 15 9 200 MB DIV 44 41 38 22 10 -36 10 13 -18 -29 -9 4 -13 0 3 -9 -45 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -11 -10 -3 -4 3 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 169 312 438 555 665 824 970 1047 1155 1273 1439 1619 1833 2022 1810 1608 1383 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.2 16.9 16.4 16.0 15.8 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.9 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.7 25.1 26.3 27.0 28.1 29.3 30.9 32.6 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 12 11 10 11 10 11 13 14 14 16 21 25 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 12. 17. 22. 28. 32. 37. 44. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 18.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 10/10/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 27.0 to 143.0 0.72 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.5 109.2 to 0.0 0.45 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 13.5% 8.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 10.3% 9.5% 5.3% 0.8% 3.0% 2.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 2.0% 1.5% 2.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 8.5% 7.1% 3.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 10/10/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 31 32 32 32 34 35 37 42 47 52 57 61 69 73 18HR AGO 25 24 27 28 29 29 29 31 32 34 39 44 49 54 58 66 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 23 25 26 28 33 38 43 48 52 60 64 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 16 18 19 21 26 31 36 41 45 53 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT