* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/13/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 44 51 56 59 62 66 67 71 73 75 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 36 44 51 56 59 62 66 67 71 73 75 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 50 56 62 69 77 86 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 10 7 7 5 8 5 5 2 7 7 1 3 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 251 258 272 310 340 322 307 260 256 273 313 332 30 55 135 176 94 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 172 168 164 164 163 164 163 162 161 163 160 153 158 156 155 157 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 60 58 60 60 59 58 58 57 56 56 55 57 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -25 -31 -39 -52 -70 -47 -32 -43 -47 -52 -37 -17 -11 -9 -17 -28 200 MB DIV 17 -7 0 -7 0 29 35 14 19 0 5 -8 -10 -32 4 -24 8 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 0 3 2 3 5 1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 12 52 20 72 157 304 475 651 779 816 786 691 583 446 352 326 343 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.4 19.1 19.9 21.5 23.2 24.6 25.7 26.1 25.8 24.9 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.9 64.1 65.2 66.1 66.8 67.4 67.2 66.4 65.4 64.4 63.6 63.3 63.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 8 9 7 6 4 4 5 6 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 96 103 83 77 81 89 64 47 52 54 51 51 48 49 53 65 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 41. 42. 46. 48. 50. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 62.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/13/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.81 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.57 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 27.0 to 143.0 0.93 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 27.0% 14.8% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 17.7% 9.6% 3.7% 1.5% 10.6% 17.7% 46.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 13.3% 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% Consensus: 3.4% 19.3% 9.1% 4.5% 0.6% 3.9% 12.1% 15.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 9.6% 4.5% 2.2% .3% 1.9% 6.0% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/13/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/13/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 29 36 44 51 56 59 62 66 67 71 73 75 79 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 35 43 50 55 58 61 65 66 70 72 74 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 40 47 52 55 58 62 63 67 69 71 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 32 39 44 47 50 54 55 59 61 63 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT