* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/13/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 36 45 54 58 61 63 66 69 72 74 77 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 36 45 54 58 61 63 66 69 72 74 77 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 37 42 46 49 54 60 67 75 85 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 11 9 5 8 4 9 7 5 2 6 4 4 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 239 247 251 265 309 306 322 254 271 244 259 318 26 51 74 152 95 SST (C) 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 169 170 166 164 163 163 163 165 162 163 164 153 152 156 155 154 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 59 58 57 61 62 59 60 58 57 54 52 52 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -12 -22 -30 -41 -62 -58 -15 -31 -43 -65 -58 -41 -20 -4 -1 -11 200 MB DIV 7 21 -5 6 -6 3 25 20 21 -1 -11 -10 -20 -22 -6 -4 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 0 2 1 3 3 4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 26 58 33 38 104 255 392 593 762 860 879 829 717 578 447 378 364 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.9 22.5 24.2 25.5 26.5 26.6 26.0 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.4 64.5 65.6 66.4 67.4 67.5 66.8 65.7 64.4 63.2 62.4 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 8 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 7 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 70 109 94 81 76 92 74 48 50 50 44 41 43 48 50 57 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 20. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. 44. 47. 49. 52. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 62.1 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/13/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.55 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 27.0 to 143.0 0.94 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 24.0% 12.4% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 33.4% 20.7% 13.4% 7.9% 31.8% 48.0% 74.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 15.1% 3.6% 0.4% 0.5% 2.0% 0.2% 2.7% Consensus: 4.1% 24.2% 12.2% 7.7% 2.8% 11.3% 22.2% 25.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 12.6% 6.6% 4.3% 1.4% 5.6% 11.1% 12.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/13/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/13/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 28 30 36 45 54 58 61 63 66 69 72 74 77 80 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 34 43 52 56 59 61 64 67 70 72 75 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 40 49 53 56 58 61 64 67 69 72 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 32 41 45 48 50 53 56 59 61 64 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT