* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/13/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 26 28 35 42 50 55 57 59 61 63 66 68 70 74 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 26 28 35 42 50 55 57 59 61 63 66 68 70 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 24 24 26 28 32 36 39 43 46 49 54 61 71 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 8 9 7 3 4 10 10 8 6 6 3 2 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 222 248 259 260 272 344 318 277 247 252 274 297 317 348 11 145 206 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 164 168 161 160 161 163 162 161 162 161 157 159 154 151 157 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 64 62 58 59 58 61 62 61 60 59 58 54 52 52 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -10 -20 -30 -37 -66 -68 -36 -47 -57 -69 -69 -44 -24 -3 9 8 200 MB DIV 4 10 15 -15 0 0 21 36 -1 18 -6 4 -20 -8 -16 -3 -14 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -3 0 3 3 3 3 0 -2 -4 -7 -7 -5 0 0 LAND (KM) 124 8 14 41 71 249 436 593 697 772 786 722 599 451 295 173 121 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.2 20.7 22.4 23.9 25.0 25.7 25.8 25.2 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.5 61.8 62.9 63.9 64.9 66.2 66.5 65.9 65.0 64.2 63.6 63.4 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 8 6 4 2 4 6 7 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 65 100 88 67 84 94 62 59 56 51 51 52 51 48 54 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 10. 17. 25. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 41. 43. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 60.5 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/13/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 27.0 to 143.0 0.92 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 17.3% 11.2% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 12.2% 50.4% 40.0% 40.0% 31.0% 41.3% 44.0% 80.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 2.5% Consensus: 5.3% 24.6% 17.7% 16.2% 10.5% 14.0% 19.4% 27.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.6% 12.3% 8.8% 8.1% 5.2% 7.0% 9.7% 13.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/13/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/13/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 26 28 35 42 50 55 57 59 61 63 66 68 70 74 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 28 35 42 50 55 57 59 61 63 66 68 70 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 32 39 47 52 54 56 58 60 63 65 67 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 31 39 44 46 48 50 52 55 57 59 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT