* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/12/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 56 60 63 65 67 69 72 73 75 76 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 56 60 63 65 67 69 72 73 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 37 40 45 50 56 62 67 71 76 82 87 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 6 7 9 7 7 4 7 15 11 10 6 9 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 0 0 2 -9 -2 -8 -5 -6 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 173 199 225 246 243 270 346 19 86 146 145 139 144 241 257 243 241 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 165 163 161 165 157 156 158 164 165 163 164 160 157 155 155 155 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 61 60 59 60 60 60 58 56 53 50 48 51 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -8 -8 -19 -24 -39 -63 -71 -18 -23 -8 10 27 52 92 97 88 200 MB DIV 6 5 -4 -3 10 -7 12 20 24 4 6 -16 5 -13 -9 30 6 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 5 4 5 5 3 1 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 369 267 145 40 62 106 295 475 649 790 895 943 950 946 941 951 989 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.7 21.2 22.9 24.6 25.7 26.2 26.1 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 59.1 60.3 61.4 62.4 64.2 65.5 65.5 64.4 62.7 61.0 59.4 58.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 9 7 6 6 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 49 50 61 90 60 70 73 60 44 37 45 54 55 54 54 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 42. 43. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 57.9 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.77 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 27.0 to 143.0 0.88 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.2 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 25.6% 12.5% 9.3% 6.8% 14.2% 18.1% 36.8% Logistic: 6.9% 43.1% 32.5% 21.7% 13.3% 32.7% 34.4% 74.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.7% 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 8.3% Consensus: 3.7% 25.8% 16.2% 10.4% 6.8% 16.2% 17.9% 40.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 13.4% 8.6% 5.7% 3.4% 8.1% 8.9% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/12/2024 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 43 50 56 60 63 65 67 69 72 73 75 76 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 41 48 54 58 61 63 65 67 70 71 73 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 44 50 54 57 59 61 63 66 67 69 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 36 42 46 49 51 53 55 58 59 61 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT