* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/12/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 60 63 65 66 68 69 72 75 78 82 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 60 63 65 66 68 69 72 75 78 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 40 45 50 55 61 67 72 76 80 85 91 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 6 4 4 7 7 5 4 8 12 9 6 5 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 0 3 2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -6 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 165 166 190 221 270 265 308 353 8 97 133 132 118 156 213 199 140 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 163 163 161 164 153 154 157 159 151 151 154 157 159 161 161 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 62 62 60 62 59 62 60 55 54 49 48 44 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -6 -7 -16 -28 -45 -66 -44 -26 -36 -26 -37 -20 -4 22 17 200 MB DIV 7 9 7 -13 -6 -5 1 23 17 15 -4 -19 -8 -30 -40 -21 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 1 3 3 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 423 379 285 177 70 80 162 340 476 595 660 698 643 542 379 232 113 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.8 19.0 20.2 21.7 23.0 24.1 24.5 24.5 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.8 58.9 60.0 61.1 63.0 64.6 65.3 65.0 63.9 62.7 61.6 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 7 7 7 6 4 5 6 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 48 49 56 93 52 67 64 55 45 47 53 49 67 93 92 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 38. 39. 42. 45. 48. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 56.7 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.88 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.86 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 28.9% 15.3% 9.6% 7.1% 18.7% 20.4% 35.9% Logistic: 13.7% 54.8% 46.8% 36.8% 25.5% 45.0% 39.0% 75.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 36.2% 12.3% 2.5% 1.8% 10.0% 0.6% 11.2% Consensus: 6.4% 39.9% 24.8% 16.3% 11.5% 24.6% 20.0% 40.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 20.4% 12.9% 8.6% 5.7% 12.3% 10.0% 20.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/12/2024 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 48 55 60 63 65 66 68 69 72 75 78 82 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 45 52 57 60 62 63 65 66 69 72 75 79 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 47 52 55 57 58 60 61 64 67 70 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 38 43 46 48 49 51 52 55 58 61 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT