* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942024 09/12/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 53 58 61 63 65 67 68 70 72 75 80 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 53 58 61 63 65 67 68 70 72 75 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 33 34 38 44 49 54 60 66 73 77 80 86 93 102 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 7 5 3 7 9 8 5 4 11 8 4 1 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -7 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 1 -8 -4 -6 -4 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 160 157 162 179 242 321 279 343 1 29 109 128 139 175 72 115 131 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 159 163 163 162 162 153 155 159 159 153 149 150 154 156 160 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 59 63 61 61 61 61 61 58 56 53 51 50 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -9 -13 -14 -27 -44 -55 -77 -57 -40 -32 -36 -24 -1 5 16 200 MB DIV 8 9 1 10 -2 2 -16 11 19 28 3 10 -7 -5 -18 -19 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -4 -6 -3 -1 1 2 4 3 2 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 511 446 406 324 219 66 113 199 351 487 584 655 682 667 591 491 396 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 18.3 19.3 20.5 21.8 23.1 24.0 24.5 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.4 57.4 58.5 59.6 61.7 63.4 64.8 65.3 65.0 63.9 62.9 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 11 9 8 6 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 63 43 42 47 49 72 80 52 68 64 55 47 45 52 51 51 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 42. 45. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 55.4 ** 2024 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.78 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 27.0 to 143.0 0.85 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 109.2 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 24.7% 12.4% 9.3% 6.8% 15.8% 20.7% 36.2% Logistic: 6.6% 33.8% 26.2% 14.8% 6.8% 13.4% 14.0% 63.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.1% 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 6.4% Consensus: 3.7% 22.2% 13.9% 8.1% 4.6% 10.2% 11.6% 35.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942024 INVEST 09/12/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942024 INVEST 09/12/2024 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 39 47 53 58 61 63 65 67 68 70 72 75 80 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 45 51 56 59 61 63 65 66 68 70 73 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 46 51 54 56 58 60 61 63 65 68 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 37 42 45 47 49 51 52 54 56 59 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT